Mitt Romney's Got the nomination and here's why.
Mitt Romney wins the Republican nomination of 2012. Here's why. I can simplify it first, and then go into the details. Most basic point: Rick Perry looks like Bush, sounds like him and is from Texas. End of story.
But, if you want to get into more details, let's discuss the breakdown of what chunk this guy takes away. He doesn't steal Mitt Romney votes. Mitt voters have always been dispassionate about the Mormon former-businessman, East Coast semi-liberal governor. They want a guy who can win. They want to win. Those folks aren't going to be swayed by a sweet talkin' Texan. Romney by far carries the worst threat to Obama, Republicans with half of their brains functioning realize this.
He's got business experience in a time where the current guy on top has none. During a time of joblessness, that's a huge asset. He's got enough liberal points he's won over the years to make an evangelical's stomach hurl, but that doesn't matter. He's also got enough of a middle of the road background to "Out-President" our sitting President. the middle decides these elections each year anyway. How uninformed that middle must be to be constantly switching between massively different political and economic agendas blows my mind, but then so does the huge number of people watching The Bachelor
. This format hasn't gotten old yet?
Perry only threatens Bachmann. He splits the evangelicals and maybe sets himself up nicely for a VP slot if he beats her in the game of "Who's The Better Christian?" You have to mention God and Jesus as many times as possible to win, and he's off to a nice start, integrating prayers into speeches like nothing. Forget policy, you vote for the candidate that wears Christianity not one one's sleeve, but on one's enormous American flag cape, replacing the stars with a cross while they're at it. You can find plenty of images of that, google "American Flag Cross
." I didn't capitalize "google" because I think we safely assume it's a verb now. Or you can always metacrawler it
Obama has a true challenger in Romney and Romney knows it, Obama knows it, liberals know it, and the smarter of the Republicans know it. The battle of Bachmann and Romney will leave evangelicals split and even go more toward solidifying Romney's nomination. The question for Obama will be how to defeat a guy with a Presidential look from Hollywood Central Casting, and a decent resume, at least by some standards.
Romney is in a pickle though, because he actually has a record that mirrors that of Obama in many respects. Come national election time, he may face the demise of a recent presidential candidate from the same state, Mr. John Kerry. That is, the accusation of being a flip-flopper. In order to even that out he will probably want to pick a far-right VP, but that will hurt his appeal to the disenfranchised left looking for new options. I think we could see a close race here with a Romney nomination. Obama's greatest weapon is to "John Huntsman" the guy. Point out all the great Romneycare innovations of the past he helped pave the way for, and his previous liberal record and he'll gradually scare away the opposition, but he'll have to be careful not to tout Romney so much that an impatient American liberal base goes and switches sides just to spite what they feel wasn't enough change. That being said no one wants "Imitation Liberal", just as no one wants "Imitation Republican" or the TouchPad when you can get an iPad.
Now, Perry if he were to somehow win the nomination wouldn't have that problem of seeming like imitation Obama, but then it would be easy to tear this guy apart. A simple sign "Perry = Bush" would be all Obama needs to do. Not even run, not even debate. Just print out a few signs and call it a day. People like to say Obama can't keep blaming Bush, but he sure can if the ghost of Bush comes to face him in the national election.
Remember when Trump was at the top of the polls? All it took was one Press Correspondents Dinner and that guy was out of there faster than that hair-like creature living on his head could fly out of the room. Some politicians have the charisma, the "it" factor, but when it comes to the showdown fall short of their huge expectations. The press always wants its new darling, and Perry is the flavor of the week, but don't let them fool you. This is a Romney vs. Obama election, and with that comes a much closer and more powerful Presidential battle than most of us will experience in our lifetimes.