Man on the Run
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The NSA uber-leaker has a few resources for eluding capture, former spooks say, but not for long.
Former CIA spies on what they'd do If they were Snowden
Argo" this ain't.
Edward Snowden is on his own, it appears. The CIA is hunting, not helping him.
Unless he's working hand in glove with Chinese or some other spy agency, he has no access to master disguises and clever operational support, as the American diplomats who escaped Tehran did.
Moreover, the disillusioned former NSA contractor is a techie, not a trained operative. Assuming he's not working with a foreign intelligence agency, his only hope for evading capture for a few more hours or days, say former CIA operatives, is staying off the grid and holing up in a low-rent bordello or someplace else that doesn't require a credit card.
Snowden can be certain the NSA is listening closely for his phone calls or credit charges. Likewise, the CIA and DEA have certainly pinged all their Hong Kong assets--from local police sources to bartenders, hookers and hotel concierges--to be on the lookout for the fugitive. Same for the FBI, which has close relations with Hong Kong counter-terrorism units. His picture is everywhere.
So for starters, he'll need a lot of cash, says former CIA operative Art Keller and others with field experience. Even then, "unless he has unlimited cash funds in unfrozen accounts, he's likely to wind up treed" in a safe haven like the consulate of Ecuador, whose London embassy is already shielding WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.
"The first thing you need to do obviously is to sever all ties with your previous identity," agreed former CIA operative Charles Faddis, who retired a few years ago as head of the Counterterrorism Center's WMD section. "That means [discarding] your phone, your computer, your bank accounts, passport, credit cards--absolutely anything that you had previously.
"From that point on you would be working with no identity and only cash. So realistically, you cannot do that very long. You either need to?purchase new identity documents or you need to throw yourself on the mercy of some foreign power."
Added Faddis, who has written several books and novels based on his CIA experience, "I don't think this guy has a prayer of handling this on his own ?So I suspect he will show up?in mainland China soon. Or at least try to get there."
Snowden has insisted, however, that he has no interest in aiding a hostile power or defecting.
"He probably is taking the Assange model and is trying to get asylum in Ecuador," former CIA official Vincent Cannistraro said. "Too late for Venezuela" with Hugo Chavez dead.Barring that, Hong Kong does provide a few amenities for a fugitive, former CIA field operatives told me.
"Well let's not forget, he's in the land of forgeries," said another former CIA operative who asked not to be identified. "If he's smart, he chose to do this in Hong Kong for a reason and already has his exit plan in mind along with some fake docs."
"Hong Kong isn't a bad choice," added Keller, whose first thriller, "Hollow Strength," was published last year, "because of the ambiguous legal status would slow extradition proceedings down once he is located."
Meanwhile, all the operatives mocked how the fugitive, who did a short stint as a low level CIA techie, took off without a better plan.
"My advice 4 Snowden," former CIA disguise expert (and professional comedian) Emily Brandwin told me in a tweet, is "perhaps he shouldn't have told everyone where he's hiding." That would explain his short CIA career."
He should have taken "Tradecraft 101," Brandwin cracked.
And it's not that hard.
"Even in this day and age, you can make fake ID's," Keller, who served under cover in the wilds of Pakistan and elsewhere, pointed out. "If he'd taken the time to do the laborious chore of finding a state that still doesn't do a good job of securing birth and death records.?By mail, you can request a birth certificate from someone who was born around your age, but died shortly after.?You use that as a document to get a driver's license and request a Social Security number. Then you set up some bank accounts under that name and slowly shift funds into them.?Then apply for a passport."??
But "you can't do all this after the fact," Keller said.?
"With no alias passport," said a former CIA deep cover operative who asked not to be identified, Snowden's chances of evading capture are slim.?And Hong Kong, a "special administrative region" of communist China, is not a good choice, he said.
"The first thing I would do is not hole up in a country with an extradition treaty with the US (Hong Kong has one). He could always flee to China, but they would make him cough up all of the NSA and CIA info he had...and then he really would be a traitor and not a whistleblower," as he claims, the former operative said.
"I'd go somewhere I can speak the local language, and blend in, so probably not, um, China, or Iceland," jibed Lindsay Moran, who published a memoir, "Blowing My Cover: My Life as a CIA Spy," in 2005.
"I don't want to get more specific than that," joked Moran, who served in the operations directorate from 1998 to 2003.
"I think I'd be okay," she added. "But unlike Snowden, I've had training and practice in using disguises and aliases and detecting surveillance. Of course, if I ended up in prison--which he likely will-- I'd spend that time writing a book. And I'd make sure to get it cleared by CIA."
"I'd go to Viet Nam with a Lonely Planet and a story about re-tracing the steps of my uncle who fought and died there," kidded another former CIA operative. Then "lay low for a while before heading off to Bali."
China seems a likely destination for Snowden if he decides he doesn't want to spend years in jail.
It would be relatively easy to slip across the border, said former top Delta commando Wade Ishimoto.
"Hong Kong officials might stop him.?But he could seek political asylum in China," he said.
In the meantime, "The key is finances," said the former deep-cover operative. "How are you going to travel, eat, and sleep while you are on the run?"
Snowden seems torn between running and wanting to have his day in court. If he thought he could do both by choosing Hong Kong, he was fatally mistaken.
He told the Guardian newspaper he was standing up for his principles by identifying himself.
Most likely, he'll get a chance to explain himself further in a US court.
(BE SURE TO ALSO VIEW: CIA Commando Hits Agency - John Doe says spy agency pursuing false war crimes probe. Copy of complaint included.)
Jeff Stein, Intelligence Columnist : [ Click here to
contact Jeff directly ] Bronze Star recipient, author, and investigative reporter, specializing in U.S. intelligence, defense, and foreign policy, Jeff Stein. Stein was born in Philadelphia but grew up in New England, moving with his family to Maine in 1954. After attending school in Providence, Rhode Island, he moved to Hingham, Massachusetts, where he graduated from high school in 1962. Following high school, he... (more...)