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The ability to draw votes from cross-section groups that make up America is key.
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Donald John Trump, Sr., born June 14, 1946, is an American business magnate, investor, television personality, author, and 2016 US Presidential candidate. ©2017 Archives
The eminent demise of the Republican Party
Let’s take the eminent (if nothing changes) demise of the Republican Party.
Assuming that either Donald Trump, a demagogue salesman, the rich man’s Willy Loman, or Cruz, a Canadian equivalent of Huey Long (for the millions of you who don’t know who Huey Long was, he was a bad guy who acted righteous). Let’s assume these two front runners, one of them gets nominated.
Let’s also assume they run either of them against Hillary Clinton based on the likelihood that Bernie Sanders’ call for an end to big-money billionaire and banking corporate control of the country is too much change from the status quo for the system.
It’s Hillary versus Trump or Cruz.
Regardless of what is said in the coming debates.
Approximately 45 percent of the women in this country are Democrats as opposed to 25 percent Republican. How can Trump or Cruz win this block? How do you think most women, who are Democrats, will vote given the chance for the first woman president in history?
Okay. Trump of Cruz doesn’t get the women vote. Right?
What about African Americans? Approximately 80 percent to 70 percent in the country are Democrats. Let’s assume they are not as fond of Hillary as they were of Obama, the first black president in American history. Let’s assume Hillary gets only 60 percent of the African American vote.
That leaves 30 percent or less for Trump and Cruz.
Okay, Trump and Cruz don’t get the African American vote either.
Neither one of them will get the White Democrat vote we know this. There goes that one. Chalk another one up for Hillary. So far it’s Hillary three, Trump and Cruz zero.
Let’s move on now to third Party voters and independents. Let’s be real generous and say Trump or Cruz gets about a third of these. A third goes to Hillary with another third voting for none of them.
Okay, it’s Trump of Cruz one-third, Hillary three-and-one-third.
Let’s move on to White Republicans. It’s a better-than-even-money bet that both Trump and Cruz are too extreme for all Republicans. If we’re generous, we could say that either one of them would get about seventy-five percent of the Republican vote. That’s three-quarters.
So far it’s Hillary three-and-one-third, Trump or Cruz a fraction over one.
Let’s move on to the Hispanic vote. Big loss here. Trump has said he will throw them out of the country and Hillary will run countless TV ads showing Trump saying we need to build a wall against Mexicans.
Hillary will get a landslide Hispanic vote, ninety percent or better.
Now it’s Hillary four-and-one-third, Trump or Cruz a fraction over one.
Who else is left? Evangelicals might vote for Trump or Cruz given their core values. According to mid-term election polls they make up about 26 percent of the electorate. Not a lot of damage here for Hillary.
Trump or Cruz gets a third. That leaves Hillary with four-and-one-third, and Trump or Cruz with a little over one-and-one-third.
Trump or Cruz will get the angry white vote and the disgruntled over abortion, guns, religion and what-have-you, and the ignorant, those who don’t know any better and who are entertained by Trump’s antics. Hillary will get the experience-counts vote, people who value her government experience and who ignore her emails and Benghazi.
An added tenth for both of them, 10 percent. That leaves Hillary with four-and-one-third-and-one-tenth, and Trump or Cruz with a little over one-and-one-third-and-one-tenth.
You don’t have to be a genius to figure out where this is going.
The Republican Party is doomed because it cannot offer up a candidate that has cross-over appeal to races, groups, ideologies, in other words, the ability to pull votes from people who don’t look like you and who don’t believe what you believe. The fact that the Republican Party can’t seem to understand that lacking a centralist candidate, a candidate whose views are moderate enough to draw from the center of the political spectrum, adds to the certainty that extremism in politics and narrow focus simply will not work.
How extreme is extreme? Politicians in England are debating whether to forbid Trump to enter the country…. that extreme.
But Republicans don’t seem to understand.
In other words, when you have two leading candidates, Trump and Cruz, make Jeb Bush look like Abraham Lincoln, you’re in big trouble.
In that way the race for the party nomination is like a desert mirage. You get a majority vote in your own party but that’s a proverbial tip of the iceberg. In a general election what had been viewed as strength suddenly becomes appalling weakness.
The ability to draw votes from cross-section groups that make up America as a whole (not the fringe) is key.
Given the numbers and using basic logic, if Trump or Cruz is selected, the Republican Party becomes the political equivalent of the dodo bird…Extinct.
In other words, Trump and Cruz are the best things to happen to Hillary Clinton.
John Sammon, : John Sammon is a writer whose experience includes newspaper reporting, magazine writing, personality profiles, interviews, celebrity interviews (Clint Eastwood), historical pieces, investigative and crime. He was selected “Most Valuable Reporter” for California’s oldest continually operating newspaper, and covered the weekend crime beat for a daily newspaper in Nevada. If you beat your wife on Friday, he wrote about it and got you in deep trouble on Saturday. He covered business,... (more...)