With the looming New York Democratic Party Primary a few days away, two outcomes are most likely to occur. The first, is that the heavily favorite, establishment and corporate-interest backed candidate, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, will dominate a state she served as Senator in. Amassing such a significant lead in delegates, leaving her within arm’s reach of actually securing the required delegates to lock the nomination, once the superdelegates pledged to her are added in.
The second outcome is that Sanders wins, or ties, or loses by a small enough margin that the chances of either candidate capturing the 2383 delegates required to lock the nomination will not occur before the Democratic convention this summer. That means that Senator Sanders will continue on to the convention, even though the corporate media, and most citizens would have written him off with about a zero percent chance of persuading the superdelegates at the convention to back him.
But, why would that be so insane? If we look at primary results of the states that voted for a Democratic President in 2012, we get the following results.
States that voted for President Obama in 2012 – and how they voted in the 2016 Democratic Primaries/Caucuses, to date.
Iowa – Clinton won by .3%, an essential tie
New Hampshire – Sanders won overwhelmingly +22.4%
Nevada – Clinton won by 5.3%
Colorado – Sanders won by a significant margin +19%
Massachusetts – Clinton won by 1.4%, an essential tie.
Minnesota – Sanders won overwhelmingly +23.2%
Vermont – Sanders won overwhelmingly +72.5%
Virginia – Clinton won overwhelmingly +29%
Maine – Sanders won overwhelmingly +28.8%
Michigan – Sanders won by 1.5%, an essential tie.
Ohio – Clinton won by a significant margin +13.8%
Florida – Clinton won overwhelmingly +31.1%
Illinois – Clinton won by 1.8%, an essential tie.
Hawaii – Sanders won overwhelmingly by 39.8%
Washington – Sanders won overwhelmingly by 45.6%
Wisconsin – Sanders won by a significant margin +13.5%
That means Sanders won blue states overwhelmingly in 6 out of the 16 primaries/caucuses, compared to Clinton winning 2 blue states by an overwhelming margin. Sanders also won blue states by a significant margin in 2 of the contests, compared to the 1 won by Clinton, which means 8 out of the 12 primaries/caucuses in blue states, excluding the 4 essential ties, were won overwhelmingly or by a significant margin by Sanders.
Since that is the reality of the primaries/caucuses at this point, why wouldn’t Sanders take it all the way to the convention? The data doesn’t lie, and if the Democratic party is looking to run the best candidate to win the Presidential nomination, the blue states are telling us who that is, Senator Sanders from Vermont.
So to all the political pundits, and Clinton surrogates alluding that it’s time for Sanders to get out of the race, look at the data, and listen to the Democratic voters, they are trying to tell you something.