Putin Senses An Opening

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While China completes its takeover of the South China Sea, all of Central America heads for our southern border and Kamala Harris hides in a bunker somewhere to attempt to evade any responsibility for the slow-motion train wreck that is the Biden administration, Vladimir Putin is getting ready to bite off another chunk of Ukraine. For weeks now Russian troops and military vehicles have been flooding into the area along the Ukrainian border. The movement continues, and if anything is intensifying.

Specific aspects of the military buildup are particularly troubling.

https://twitter.com/blackleckoschal/status/1381924811023265794?s=20

Increasingly, the Russian vehicles moving in the direction of Ukraine are seen to have had all identifying markings painted over. This suggests that the intention is for the Russians to be able to use them in a %, claiming for instance that they belong to pro-Russian Ukrainian forces rather than to Moscow itself.

https://twitter.com/Guderian_Xaba/status/1382201511556550657?s=20

The massing of troops is not only ongoing in the Donbass region, which is contested with Ukraine. Troops and vehicles have also been noted in Belarus, suggesting that the Russians intend some sort of two-pronged attack on Ukraine. Given the geography, this can only mean that the plan is for a much deeper incursion into Ukrainian territory.

Also, land forces are not the only units being moved. Russian air force units are being positioned near the theater of operations as well. Naval forces have been reported to have gone on alert, and Russian vessels have been observed moving from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea so as to be in a position to support a land attack.

https://twitter.com/MollyMcKew/status/1382321179424391173?s=20

Perhaps most ominously, though, the rhetoric on the Russian side is escalating. Ukraine is being accused of conducting terrorist attacks inside Russia. Western intelligence agencies are being branded as assisting in such operations. All of this sounds very much like the kind of predicate Moscow typically produces to allow it to characterize its aggression as mere self-defense.

In 2014 when Russia and Ukraine went to war, the Ukrainian forces were hopelessly outclassed. Since then Ukraine has made massive improvements. I t is a vastly different force. Still, Russia has a much larger, much more capable military. Particularly, if Moscow decides to launch an attack on more than one front it is unlikely that Ukraine can win a war.

What exactly is about to happen in Ukraine remains to be seen. It may yet turn out that Putin is simply sending a signal to Kyiv and reminding the Ukrainians that Russia remains the preeminent power in that part of the world. It may seem attractive to cozy up to the EU and NATO, but that doesn’t mean much when Russian tanks mass on your border.

Still, as with the Chinese in the South China Sea, one cannot escape the obvious. Joe Biden is a pathetically weak President whose main claim to fame is the family criminal enterprise he has run for years selling influence to the thugs and dictators of the world. His Vice-President is hopelessly out of her depth. The Biden administration is filled with individuals completely identified with the Obama-era policies of appeasement and retreat.

Many years ago as an Army lieutenant in the Armor Branch, I was trained on Russian military doctrine. We were told that wherever the Russians saw an opening or a weak spot, that was where they would attack. That was where they would commit their reserves.

The lesson was clear. Retreat invited further attack. Weakness guaranteed an all-out assault.
Putin senses weakness. He sees an opening. We may see the attack this invites any day.

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