[The first portion of this article is fiction intended to make a dramatic point.]
Yesterday evening in excess of 50 Chinese aircraft penetrated the air defense zone surrounding Taiwan. Some of these aircraft, according to Taiwanese authorities then intruded into the legally recognized airspace over Taiwan. In response Taiwanese anti-aircraft missile batteries engaged the incoming aircraft.
Several Chinese aircraft were struck and were shot down. The exact number is as yet unknown. The number of Chinese pilots who were killed is also unknown.
Following the incident Chinese aircraft began a massive series of air strikes on Taiwan. Long-range missiles from the mainland also were launched at Taiwan. Taiwanese anti-aircraft missile batteries and airfields were targeted.
Casualties at these facilities are believed to be significant. A number of facilities are now offline. An undetermined number of Taiwanese aircraft were destroyed on the ground.
Beijing claims that its aircraft were never inside internationally recognized Taiwanese airspace although data from a variety of tracking systems appears to contradict this claim. Beijing has condemned the actions of what it continues to call a breakaway province. It has announced that it is imposing an immediate air and sea blockade of Taiwan.
Chinese aircraft are filling the airspace around Taiwan in large numbers and Chinese warships are steaming toward Taiwan. Beijing has announced that any ship or aircraft operating within fifty miles of Taiwan will be considered to be in breach of the blockade and will be intercepted by Chinese forces.
President Joe Biden has made no public comment regarding the incident. Presidential press spokeswoman Jen Psaki has announced that for the time being at least the United States will direct its aircraft and vessels to respect the Chinese blockade in the interest of “deescalating” the crisis and to “avoid an international incident “. Psaki has also stated that the United States welcomes United Nations intervention but plans no unilateral action. Secretary of State Blinken has issued a “strongly worded” statement requesting that mainland China refrain from any offensive action against Taiwan.
American allies in the Pacific including South Korea and Japan and the Philippines have called for a vigorous American response. Their pleas have been met with a deafening silence from President Biden whose location remains unknown.
The Taiwanese President addressed the world a few minutes ago saying that the island nation was being abandoned by the United States and she feared an imminent invasion from the mainland. Satellite imagery shows that Chinese amphibious forces are being mobilized. There are also reports that the Chinese are beginning to draft commercial vessels into military service in possible preparation for an invasion of Taiwan.A fictional Taiwan scenario…
The above is fiction. Tomorrow it could be fact. Chinese pressure against Taiwan is rising by the day. To date, the American response has been tepid at best.
The man in the White House has, in less than nine months, dramatically altered the balance of power in the world. We are diminished. China is emboldened. Everywhere we are in retreat.
We must also acknowledge that Biden came to the Presidency deeply compromised by Communist China. Literally, billions of dollars in CCP money have been funneled to the Bidens over the years. We must consider the very real possibility that what we are seeing is not simply gross incompetence. We may be witnessing deliberate, calculated malfeasance.
In this environment, what are the realistic prospects that the Biden administration will come to the defense of Taiwan? What are the chances that Joe and his senior advisors, many of whom are also compromised by the CCP, would direct American air and naval forces to break a Chinese blockade and come to the rescue of Taipei? Any rational person would have to say – nil.
Taiwan cannot long survive a blockade.
Taiwan lives entirely on imported energy. It imports one million barrels of oil a day and 2 billion cubic meters of gas a month. All of this has to arrive on the island by ship. If China imposes a blockade, the lights go out. Vehicles stop moving. Business shuts down.
Taiwan cannot feed itself. It has a high population density and produces roughly a third of what its population eats. If a blockade is maintained for any significant period of time the country starves.
How long Taiwan could last on reserves of food and energy already on island is unclear. It is not long. If the CCP blockades the island, and no one comes to the rescue, Taiwan is doomed. It is only a matter of time.
Lest all of this still seem like pure speculation and the plot of a cheap novel consider this. In a recent editorial the Global Times, which is owned and controlled by the Chinese Communist Party, called for the People’s Liberation Army to dispatch fighters over Taiwan and “even carry out an economic blockade on the island,” despite the risk of starting a war.
In an editorial titled “Teach the US, Taiwan island a real lesson if they call for it,” the Global Times expressed outrage at reports that the Biden administration might change the names of the American diplomatic mission in Taipei the “Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office” to the “Taiwan Representative Office.”
Global Times called for this response if this action were taken.
“At that time, the mainland should impose severe economic sanctions on the island and even carry out an economic blockade on the island, depending on the circumstances,” Global Times’ editorial board wrote. “Militarily, Chinese mainland’s fighter jets should fly over the island of Taiwan and place the island’s airspace into the patrol area of the PLA. This is a step that the mainland must take sooner or later.”
The Global Times appeared to welcome the possibility that PLA flyovers could lead to war. “Let us be fully prepared that there will be a showdown in the Taiwan Straits. Let us crush the will of the [Taiwanese] authority with our strong will. Let us send our first PLA fighter jet over the island of Taiwan at the most accurate time. That will be a milestone on China’s path to reunification.”
We are at a critical moment. Nothing that has happened since Biden entered the White House suggests we would act to support Taiwan in the face of Chinese aggression. Beijing has not missed this reality. As Chinese forces settle into their new quarters at Bagram airbase, Xi Jinping knows he has a historic opportunity to run the table and reclaim the “breakaway” island province of Taiwan.
Friends of Taiwan must speak up. Anyone truly interested in the national security of the United States needs to make themselves heard. We must act, now, to make clear to Beijing that we stand with Taipei. Biden and his mandarins must hear loud and clear that we the American people will not tolerate them doing the bidding of the CCP.
If we do not, today’s fiction may be tomorrow’s fact. Taiwan is on the brink.